What to watch on Election night as the polls close.
We should be watching a lot of these states that are close or that have gone Republican in the past and are leaning Democrat this time around.
Below are some of the closing times, what states to watch and what my predictions for those states are.
But overall, I predict that Obama will win. I predict he will take 338 electoral college votes while McCain will claim 200. I also predict that the popular vote will have Obama winning 51% to 46% over McCain with 3% of voters choosing third party candidates such as Bob Barr and Ralph Nader.
6PM: Indiana.
Prediction: McCain wins by 1%.
7PM: Florida and Virginia.
Watch Virginia and Florida. Even if McCain wins Florida, Virginia could go to Obama and make it very difficult for McCain.
Prediction: Obama wins Florida, but only by 1%. It's so close that they don't call it right away and counting goes late into the night.
Obama wins Virginia by 2% or less.
7:30PM: North Carolina and Ohio.
Prediction: McCain wins North Carolina by about 4%.
Obama wins Ohio by less than 1%.
8PM: Missouri and Pennsylvania.
Chances are, if Obama wins ONLY Pennsylvania and Virginia, and McCain wins the rest of these, Obama will still win.
Prediction: Obama wins Pennsylvania by around 5%.
McCain wins Missouri by about 2%.
I think the single most important state to watch is Pennsylvania. If McCain loses Pennsylvania it will be nearly impossible for him to win. But earlier in the night if Obama racks up a win in any one of these close states, the odds are very difficult for McCain.
Happy election day everyone! And remember, whoever wins, in January Bush will be out of office. We will be better off next year without Bush one way or the other.
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5 comments:
man, you've really studied this!
so, you'll be following it through the whole night, into another day?
Yes. I will stay up late. At the latest, 4AM, I think. But I think we'll know who has won well before then. But that also depends on how fast the count goes.
Good point about Bush. Either way, we win.
Yeah, exactly. Obviously I want Obama to win. But even if it goes the other way, we can't possibly have a worse leader than Bush.
Funny thing. I read just an hour or so ago the Karl Rove prediction for the electoral college vote and he predicted EXACTLY what I did. Hahaha! I agree with the devil!
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